“In the next two decades, it is possible to achieve the transformation using existing technologies,” says Brigitte Knopf of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, who led the study conducted by a dozen research groups. Thereafter, however, energy-economy system models project different costs. Some simulations show a steep increase after 2040, while others show only a linear increase. One determining factor is the degree to which new technologies can replace old ones. This indicates that technological progress is needed to keep costs in check. “A clear price signal has to be set today, for instance in the European Emissions Trading System,” says Knopf. “It would provide an incentive for innovation that would prevent energy systems from being locked into long-lasting investments in CO2-intensive technologies, such as coal-fired power plants.”

Current CO2 reductions fall short of achieving long-term climate targets

“The current 20 percent emission reductions by 2020 could fall short of achieving the long-term climate targets set by the EU,” explains Enrica De Cian of the Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei and the Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Italy. “Short-term emissions reductions of at least 40 percent by 2030 are necessary to eventually meet the long-term target of an 80 percent reduction by 2050 aspired by the EU.” The reference year is 1990.

>>more

Source: Carbon Capture Journal, 16 Jan 2014